Arabic AR Chinese (Simplified) ZH-CN English EN French FR German DE Japanese JA Portuguese PT Russian RU Spanish ES Ukrainian UK

Data behind Dominic Raab claim migration pushed up house prices

Latest news

    Dominic Raab

    The government has published the data behind Housing Minister Dominic Raab’s claim that immigration has caused house prices to rise 20% over 25 years.

    His figures were based on a model detailed in reports published in 2007 and 2008 by the National Housing and Planning Advice Unit.

    The model suggested that from 1991-2016, rising immigration contributed to a 21% rise in house prices.

    Mr Raab was under pressure to publish evidence to support his comments.

    In an interview with the Sunday Times, the MP said he planned to write to the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) urging it to consider the negative effects of new arrivals on housing demand as well as the positive economic benefits of immigration.

    He said he had been told by civil servants that immigration had a sizeable impact on house prices, citing figures from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) from 1991 to 2016.

    “Based on the ONS data, the advice to me from the department is that in the last 25 years we have seen immigration put house prices up by something like 20%,” he said.

    Analysis by Reality Check

    Have house prices increased by 20% as a result of immigration? They might have done, but there is a strong argument that the housing market is too complicated to assign price changes to particular factors.

    The government’s report outlining this figure is littered with warnings about how we should not expect its conclusions to match what has really happened because it is just a theoretical model.

    We should also be cautious of a 10-year-old model, especially given the unprecedented decade of low interest rates we’ve had since then.

    It is reasonable to expect an increase in households nationally to increase the demand for housing, but assigning precise-looking figures to that overlooks the complexity of the market.

    His comments prompted the Office for Statistics Regulation to call on the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) to release the analysis publicly.

    On Friday, the ministry revealed that Mr Raab’s figures were based on a model that suggested rising immigration has also contributed to an increase of £11,000 for the average property.

    View the original article:

    But the same document suggested immigration was a less significant factor in rising house prices than higher average earnings (responsible for 150% growth in house prices) and total population growth (+32%).

    In the same category are

    Chingford fire: Connington Court evacuated Image copyright @LAS_HART Image caption Dozens of firefighters were sent to help tackle the blaze A home for people with learning disabilities has...
    Ariana Grande unveils emotional new single, No Tears Left To Cry Image caption The singer released No Tears Left To Cry worldwide at 0500 GMT Ariana Grande has returned with her first new music since the terrori...
    Spy poisoning: Salisbury residents warned of toxic ‘hotspots’ Image caption More robust hoardings have begun to replace police cordons, including at The Mill pub Toxic "hotspots" of the nerve agent used to po...
    Commonwealth meeting: Leaders to discuss who will success Queen as head Image copyright AFP/Getty Images Image caption The Queen has endorsed Prince Charles to take over her role as head of the Commonwealth Commonwealt...
    Ex-MP Tessa Jowell first to donate data to medical database Media playback is unsupported on your device Media captionTessa Jowell opens up about living with brain cancer Baroness Tessa Jowell has become the ...
    Berlin set for mass evacuation as WW2 bomb is defused Image copyright EPA Image caption The bomb was found by workers on a construction site in Heidestrasse A large-scale evacuation is to take place i...

    Leave a comment

    Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *