Election 2017: Seat-by-seat result forecasts


Exit poll graphic

The Conservatives could be at risk of losing their overall majority, while remaining the largest party in Westminster, the exit poll suggests.

The Conservatives are predicted to win 314 seats, Labour 266, the SNP 34 and the Lib Dems 14. The parties require 326 seats to command a majority.

If the exit poll is correct, Prime Minister Theresa May’s hope of securing a substantially larger majority has not been fulfilled. The poll also suggests a decline in SNP support in Scotland.

The results of the NOP/Ipsos MORI poll for the BBC, ITV News and Sky News were released after voting ended at 22:00 BST.

Based on analysis of the exit poll by professor of politics John Curtice and his team, here are the seat-by-seat predicted results. As real votes are counted, these forecasts will be updated.

The seats listed below are those where the main parties are likely to make gains or where the result is too close to call. All parties could make gains in those seats currently being described as too close to call.

Result forecast as of 22:00 BST

Read full methodology

Forecast Conservative gains

We are forecasting 11 Conservative gains. Six of those are in Scotland, four in Wales and one in East England.

  • Projected: Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine 99% chance of a Conservative victory
  • Projected: Alyn & Deeside 97% chance of a Conservative victory
  • Projected: Angus 90% chance of a Conservative victory
  • Projected: Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk 99% chance of a Conservative victory
  • Projected: Clacton 99% chance of a Conservative victory
  • Projected: Clwyd South 97% chance of a Conservative victory
  • Projected: Delyn 98% chance of a Conservative victory
  • Projected: Dumfries & Galloway 99% chance of a Conservative victory
  • Projected: Moray 99% chance of a Conservative victory
  • Projected: Perth & Perthshire North 99% chance of a Conservative victory
  • Projected: Wrexham 99% chance of a Conservative victory

Forecast Labour gains

We are forecasting 14 Labour gains. Five of those are in North-West England, three in London and one each in Scotland, East England, the East Midlands, the West Midlands, South-East England, Yorkshire and the Humber.

  • Projected: Bedford 97% chance of a Labour victory
  • Projected: Bolton West 99% chance of a Labour victory
  • Projected: Brighton Kemptown 99% chance of a Labour victory
  • Projected: Bury North 99% chance of a Labour victory
  • Projected: Croydon Central 99% chance of a Labour victory
  • Projected: Derby North 99% chance of a Labour victory
  • Projected: Edinburgh North & Leith 81% chance of a Labour victory
  • Projected: Enfield Southgate 93% chance of a Labour victory
  • Projected: Finchley & Golders Green 91% chance of a Labour victory
  • Projected: Keighley 80% chance of a Labour victory
  • Projected: South Ribble 83% chance of a Labour victory
  • Projected: Warrington South 90% chance of a Labour victory
  • Projected: Weaver Vale 99% chance of a Labour victory
  • Projected: Worcester 81% chance of a Labour victory

Forecast Lib Dem gains

We are forecasting four Lib Dem gains. All of these are in Scotland.

  • Projected: Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 81% chance of a Liberal Democrat victory
  • Projected: Dunbartonshire East 99% chance of a Liberal Democrat victory
  • Projected: Edinburgh West 99% chance of a Liberal Democrat victory
  • Projected: Ross, Skye & Lochaber 90% chance of a Liberal Democrat victory

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Forecast as too close to call

The race in a large number of seats is so tight that the result is currently too close to call. There are 76 seats that our predictions show as being too close to call.

Seats forecast too close to call: Conservative held in 2015

  • Battersea, the Conservatives have a 40% chance of victory, Labour has a 60% chance of victory
  • Bristol North West, the Conservatives have a 49% chance of victory, Labour has a 51% chance of victory
  • Broxtowe, the Conservatives have a 36% chance of victory, Labour has a 64% chance of victory
  • Calder Valley, the Conservatives have a 40% chance of victory, Labour has a 60% chance of victory
  • Cannock Chase, the Conservatives have a 72% chance of victory, Labour has a 28% chance of victory
  • Chingford & Woodford Green, the Conservatives have a 79% chance of victory, Labour has a 21% chance of victory
  • Chipping Barnet, the Conservatives have a 41% chance of victory, Labour has a 59% chance of victory
  • Colne Valley, the Conservatives have a 48% chance of victory, Labour has a 52% chance of victory
  • Corby, the Conservatives have a 63% chance of victory, Labour has a 37% chance of victory
  • Dudley South, the Conservatives have a 79% chance of victory, Labour has a 21% chance of victory
  • Elmet & Rothwell, the Conservatives have a 41% chance of victory, Labour has a 59% chance of victory
  • Harrow East, the Conservatives have a 40% chance of victory, Labour has a 60% chance of victory
  • Hendon, the Conservatives have a 25% chance of victory, Labour has a 75% chance of victory
  • High Peak, the Conservatives have a 48% chance of victory, Labour has a 52% chance of victory
  • Kingston & Surbiton, the Conservatives have a 76% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 24% chance of victory
  • Lincoln, the Conservatives have a 55% chance of victory, Labour has a 45% chance of victory
  • Loughborough, the Conservatives have a 57% chance of victory, Labour has a 43% chance of victory
  • Milton Keynes North, the Conservatives have a 57% chance of victory, Labour has a 43% chance of victory
  • Milton Keynes South, the Conservatives have a 46% chance of victory, Labour has a 54% chance of victory
  • Morecambe & Lunesdale, the Conservatives have a 69% chance of victory, Labour has a 31% chance of victory
  • Morley & Outwood, the Conservatives have a 46% chance of victory, Labour has a 54% chance of victory
  • Norwich North, the Conservatives have a 69% chance of victory, Labour has a 31% chance of victory
  • Nuneaton, the Conservatives have a 69% chance of victory, Labour has a 31% chance of victory
  • Peterborough, the Conservatives have a 64% chance of victory, Labour has a 36% chance of victory
  • Plymouth Moor View, the Conservatives have a 52% chance of victory, Labour has a 48% chance of victory
  • Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, the Conservatives have a 47% chance of victory, Labour has a 53% chance of victory
  • Pudsey, the Conservatives have a 40% chance of victory, Labour has a 60% chance of victory
  • Reading East, the Conservatives have a 34% chance of victory, Labour has a 66% chance of victory
  • Reading West, the Conservatives have a 36% chance of victory, Labour has a 64% chance of victory
  • Richmond Park, the Conservatives have a 77% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 23% chance of victory
  • Rossendale & Darwen, the Conservatives have a 77% chance of victory, Labour has a 23% chance of victory
  • Shipley, the Conservatives have a 71% chance of victory, Labour has a 29% chance of victory
  • Shrewsbury & Atcham, the Conservatives have a 71% chance of victory, Labour has a 29% chance of victory
  • Southampton Itchen, the Conservatives have a 72% chance of victory, Labour has a 28% chance of victory
  • Stafford, the Conservatives have a 75% chance of victory, Labour has a 25% chance of victory
  • Stevenage, the Conservatives have a 70% chance of victory, Labour has a 30% chance of victory
  • Stockton South, the Conservatives have a 46% chance of victory, Labour has a 54% chance of victory
  • Stroud, the Conservatives have a 34% chance of victory, Labour has a 66% chance of victory
  • Swindon South, the Conservatives have a 79% chance of victory, Labour has a 21% chance of victory
  • Telford, the Conservatives have a 50% chance of victory, Labour has a 50% chance of victory
  • Thurrock, the Conservatives have a 48% chance of victory, Labour has a 52% chance of victory
  • Twickenham, the Conservatives have a 67% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 33% chance of victory
  • Warwick & Leamington, the Conservatives have a 31% chance of victory, Labour has a 69% chance of victory
  • Watford, the Conservatives have a 75% chance of victory, Labour has a 25% chance of victory
  • Waveney, the Conservatives have a 66% chance of victory, Labour has a 34% chance of victory

Seats forecast too close to call: Labour held in 2015

  • Barrow & Furness, the Conservatives have a 39% chance of victory, Labour has a 61% chance of victory
  • Bridgend, the Conservatives have a 23% chance of victory, Labour has a 77% chance of victory
  • Dewsbury, the Conservatives have a 31% chance of victory, Labour has a 69% chance of victory
  • Halifax, the Conservatives have a 45% chance of victory, Labour has a 55% chance of victory
  • Newcastle-Under-Lyme, the Conservatives have a 40% chance of victory, Labour has a 60% chance of victory
  • Newport East, the Conservatives have a 53% chance of victory, Labour has a 47% chance of victory
  • Newport West, the Conservatives have a 47% chance of victory, Labour has a 53% chance of victory
  • Ynys Mon, the Conservatives have a 13% chance of victory, Labour has a 55% chance of victory, Plaid Cymru has a 32% chance of victory

Seats forecast too close to call: Liberal Democrat held in 2015

  • Leeds North West, Labour has a 56% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 44% chance of victory
  • Sheffield Hallam, Labour has a 33% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 67% chance of victory
  • Southport, the Conservatives have a 10% chance of victory, Labour has a 14% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 76% chance of victory

Seats forecast too close to call: SNP held in 2015

  • Aberdeen South, the Conservatives have a 63% chance of victory, Labour has a 11% chance of victory, the SNP has a 26% chance of victory
  • Airdrie & Shotts, Labour has a 23% chance of victory, the SNP has a 77% chance of victory
  • Argyll & Bute, the Conservatives have a 4% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 36% chance of victory, the SNP has a 60% chance of victory
  • Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, the Conservatives have a 35% chance of victory, Labour has a 1% chance of victory, the SNP has a 64% chance of victory
  • Banff & Buchan, the Conservatives have a 25% chance of victory, the SNP has a 75% chance of victory
  • East Lothian, the Conservatives have a 24% chance of victory, Labour has a 55% chance of victory, the SNP has a 20% chance of victory
  • Edinburgh East, Labour has a 49% chance of victory, the SNP has a 51% chance of victory
  • Edinburgh South West, the Conservatives have a 37% chance of victory, Labour has a 27% chance of victory, the SNP has a 36% chance of victory
  • Fife North East, the Conservatives have a 7% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 73% chance of victory, the SNP has a 20% chance of victory
  • Glasgow Central, Labour has a 59% chance of victory, the SNP has a 41% chance of victory
  • Gordon, the Liberal Democrats have a 51% chance of victory, the SNP has a 49% chance of victory
  • Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey, the Liberal Democrats have a 48% chance of victory, the SNP has a 52% chance of victory
  • Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, Labour has a 25% chance of victory, the SNP has a 75% chance of victory
  • Lanark & Hamilton East, the Conservatives have a 5% chance of victory, Labour has a 16% chance of victory, the SNP has a 79% chance of victory
  • Ochil & Perthshire South, the Conservatives have a 31% chance of victory, Labour has a 23% chance of victory, the SNP has a 46% chance of victory
  • Paisley & Renfrewshire North, Labour has a 21% chance of victory, the SNP has a 79% chance of victory
  • Paisley & Renfrewshire South, Labour has a 54% chance of victory, the SNP has a 46% chance of victory
  • Renfrewshire East, the Conservatives have a 32% chance of victory, Labour has a 58% chance of victory, the SNP has a 10% chance of victory
  • Rutherglen & Hamilton West, Labour has a 41% chance of victory, the SNP has a 59% chance of victory
  • Stirling, the Conservatives have a 56% chance of victory, Labour has a 3% chance of victory, the SNP has a 41% chance of victory

Methodology

Analysis for this page is carried out by professor of politics John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, and his team.

The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is conducted by asking a random sample of voters at one of 144 polling locations scattered around the country to complete in private a mock ballot paper to indicate how they just voted.

Nearly all the locations are ones in which the 2015 exit poll was also conducted. The share of the vote recorded for each party at each polling location this time around is compared with the share obtained in the 2015 exit poll in order to derive 144 estimates of change in support for each party.

These estimated changes in vote share are then statistically modelled to (i) ascertain any systematic geographical variation in the estimated changes in vote shares, and (ii) derive estimated vote shares for every party in every constituency in Great Britain.

From the latter, the probability as to which party will win each seat is derived. For each party the exit poll forecast of seats won is the sum of these probabilities of winning across all constituencies.

View the original article: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40104373

Once declarations begin, forecasts are then based on a combination of exit poll and real results.

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